market-insights
December 7, 2023

Global Vehicle Aftermarket Tops $2 Trillion in 2022

by Michael Chung

The global vehicle aftermarket is estimated at $2.33 trillion for 2022: $1.87 trillion for automotive (passenger vehicles and light duty vehicles, GVW 1-3) and $461.5 billion for medium/heavy duty vehicles (GVW 4-8). The estimate is based on a model created by Hanover Research and is anchored to S&P Global's Joint Channel Forecast Model for automotive vehicles and Auto Care's estimate of the medium/heavy duty market.

Hanover’s model to quantify the aftermarket is based on the following major variables:

  • The number of passenger cars, light, medium and heavy-duty trucks in operation
  • Vehicle miles traveled (to determine VMT for each weight class for medium/heavy duty vehicles, CO2 emissions associated with road transport are used)
  • Average marginal aftermarket costs per mile (in U.S. Dollars) for each vehicle class

This year’s model incorporates weighting factors for inflation, driving population (defined for ages 15 and above), and industry value add for each country of interest as these variables could influence the aftermarket spend in both the light and medium/heavy duty vehicle segments.

The top 30 countries are listed below:

1. United States 11. Canada 21. Iran
2. China 12. Australia 22. The Netherlands 
3. Japan 13. India  23. Malaysia 
4. Germany  14. South Korea 24. Saudi Arabia
5.Brazil  15. Poland 25. Belgium
6. France 16. Mexico 26. Portugal
7. Italy 17. Indonesia 27. Sweden
8. United Kingdom 18. Turkey 28. Colombia
9. Russia 19. Thailand 29. Ukraine
10. Spain 20. South Africa 30. Greece

Fig 1 - cumulative contribution chart

These 30 countries account for $2.10 trillion of the aftermarket ($1.69 trillion light duty, $410.8 billion medium/heavy duty), 90.4% of the total $2.33 trillion global aftermarket.

The global automotive and medium-and-heavy duty aftermarket model estimates the amount of non-warranty spend by end consumers on parts, accessories and labor to service, maintain, and repair their vehicles.

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Market Insights with Mike is a series presented by the Auto Care Association's Director of Market Intelligence, Mike Chung, that is dedicated to analyzing market-influencing trends as they happen and their potential effects on your business and the auto care industry.


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